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Weekly Calendar

AFS Weekly Calendar week 13

Key events in the week March 25 - March 31, 2023 Monday March 27 • Germany IFO Business Climate • Dallas Fed Manf. Activity • ECB's Schnabel Speaks • Fed’s Jefferson Discusses Monetary Policy Tuesday March 28 • ECB's Muller Speaks • US Wholesale Inventories • US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence • Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Wednesday March 29 • Germany GfK Consumer Confidence • US Pending Home Sales Thursday March 30 • Eurozone Consumer Confidence • Germany CPI EU Harmonized • US Jobless Claims and GDP • Fed’s Barkin and Collins Speak Friday March 31 • Japan CPI • UK GDP • Germany Unemployment • Eurozone CPI and Unemployment • U. of Mich. Sentiment • Fed’s Cook Discusses US Economy and Monetary Policy
Morning Note

AFS Morning note 24/02/2023

Top Headlines: Macro Summers Sees Signals of a Sharp Drop-Off in Economic Activity Bank of Japan Governor Nominee Predicts Inflation Rate Will Fall Soon U.S. looks to expand Taiwan military training North Korea test-fires cruise missiles to demonstrate nuclear counterattack China Calls for Cease-Fire as War in Ukraine Enters Second Year Financials Deutsche Bank Studied Credit Suisse Deal Options Before Overhaul Bankman-Fried Prosecutors Allege Plot to Shape Crypto Policy Other U.S. likely to cap level of S.Korean chips made in China TSMC’s Second Japan Plant to Cost Over $7.4b: Nikkan Kogyo Asian markets led lower by China, but relief over Ueda ruling out BOJ tightening
Weekly Calendar

Weekly Calendar week 7

Key events in the week February 11 - February 17, 2023 February 13: - Switzerland CPI - European Commission Publishes Economic Forecasts - ECB's Centeno Speaks - Tuesday February 14: - UK Jobless claims - Netherlands GDP - Eurozone GDP and Employment

EU ETS Market update 23/01/2023

EUAs look set to hold onto recent gains this week, with a supportive energy complex driving buying interest, but trading could stay rangebound under €85. Colder weather is driving both higher gas prices and driving stronger EUA demand. Cold weather looks set to persist a bit longer, though German temperatures are forecast to be slightly milder than last week, and the end of the week should bring milder temperatures still.

EU ETS Market update 16/01/2023

EUAs are anticipated to trade largely neutrally this week as they rejected attempts to break lower than 78 euros last week, in spite of the return of EUA auctions. At the time of writing the market is testing 78 euros – which provided strong support over the last few days of trading. Further price losses could be possible if we see a break of that level. Bearish fundamentals could support that analysis – some commentators have pointed out a strong correlation to bearish natural gas prices, while French nuclear is running above 40GW, hydro availablility is good and wind powered generation is running strongly – but a colder spell of weather is forecast this week, which implies some upside risk if heating demand also increases. The status quo would appear to be for relatively mild temperatures for the forseeable future, so colder spells will continue to represent bullish risk. A break of 78 euros would give a bearish outlook, while no break lower might mean the market stays around the 80 euro level given that colder weather but bearish energy market fundamentals.

EU ETS Market update 09/01/2023

This week brings bearish potential with weak fundamentals and a return to auctioning – with 9,166,500 EUAs auctioned this week. Solid wind powered electricity generation and continued mild temperature forecasts will reduce fossil fuelled power generation EUA demand. Looking at power generation for delivery in 2026, gas prices are low enough that fuel switching appears possible again – which could also contribute to reducing some EUA hedging demand. Meanwhile the prospects of recession grow for industry, amidst talk of a more difficult year than last year. At the time of writing on Monday morning
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