Today's ECB meeting will be a hawkish hold, with President Lagarde highly likely repeating the mantra that the bar for a resumption of rate cuts is very high indeed;
The ECB is claiming victory that it brought inflation under control without triggering a recession. But brining down inflation has not been without cost: growth has been terribly weak since 2023. More importantly, underlying inflation has,in fact, bottomed out just above target;
Before I discuss today's ECB meeting, I discuss politics first. The ECB might look immune from political interference, unlike the Fed. Appearances can be deceiving. Fiscal dominance reigns supreme at the ECB
