ECB September 2025 Preview: the end of an era
Published on
September 11, 2025
Written by
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Arne Petimezas
Director Research
- Today's ECB meeting will be a hawkish hold, with President Lagarde highly likely repeating the mantra that the bar for a resumption of rate cuts is very high indeed;
- The ECB is claiming victory that it brought inflation under control without triggering a recession. But brining down inflation has not been without cost: growth has been terribly weak since 2023. More importantly, underlying inflation has,in fact, bottomed out just above target;
- Before I discuss today's ECB meeting, I discuss politics first. The ECB might look immune from political interference, unlike the Fed. Appearances can be deceiving. Fiscal dominance reigns supreme at the ECB.
