ECB July 2025 Preview: Yawn

Please find attached the cheat sheet for today's ECB meeting. It's going to be a complete non-event (a hold)  and it therefore makes no sense to devote time to a full preview.

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I do want to point out though that I find the ECB's reluctance to fine-tune rates further - a cut is justified - perplexing. The ECB reasons that it's expecting a brighter economic future once government investment spending ramps up (later) in 2026 and 2027. I just think they're worried about a long-end tantrum by sailing too close to the wind with more cuts - re the September 2024 US Treasury market tantrum following the Fed's 50bps cut.

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In any case, I still expect a 25bps fine-tuning/insurance cut in September.