FOMC Watch: a recession? I know it when I see it

In a nutshell, what matters is the end game: a full blown Fed easing cycle and a US recession. It's 'safer' to make bets on the low point of the fed funds rate then it is to try to guess how the US economy will perform in the near term and how the Fed will respond at the next several FOMC meetings. If you believe that the endgame is a garden variety US recession that is.