Please find attached my latest SNB outlook report. To summarize:
- If the Swiss National Bank had a motto it would be: zero. Zero rate hikes, zero rate cuts – I continue to forecast a zero percent policy rate for at least the next twelve months;
- While headline inflation has risen since the outbreak of the war in Iran, it hasn't left the lower end of the SNB's target range. Headline inflation has actually decreased over the past two months – but don't think that means rate cuts are on the horizon;
- A genuinely rare anonymous-sources story from within the SNB said the bank expects to hold rates steady until at least the end of 2027. While it may just be a leak, I believe the release of the story is part of the SNB's expanding communication strategy.