• I expect the ECB to raise interest rates by a quarter in June, and then again a final time in September by the same amount;

• The ECB can get away with a couple of tactical hikes even though the stagflationary shock hitting the economy is strong. That’s because of the weak economic backdrop. Before the war, the economy failed to pick up speed. In the spring it simply stalled;

• Thursday press conference will be a straightforward affair. The ECB will stick to the guidance that interest rates are not on a preset path, giving our central bank overlords full optionality. Careful observes will notice during the press conference with President Lagarde that the ECB is inclined to another hike.

‍