• The ECB will deliver a well-telegraphed and fully priced in 25bps rate hike on Thursday, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%. The ECB's uncommitted stance will stay, leaving the outcome of future meetings wide open. Given better than expected growth and much higher than expected natural gas prices, the ECB will continue to lean hawkish;

• Truth be told, the meeting is a non-event for obvious reasons: no cliffhangers or forward guidance. Instead, journos will try to get Lagarde to spill her guts on her succession. Barbarians are at the gates in France and Germany. And the establishment wants to future-proof the ECB and other institutions against 'funny' nominees;

• The preview is part eulogy on Lagarde's performance as President. On inflation, she did remarkably well. Controversially, that judgement fully takes into account the pandemic price level increase of twenty percent.

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