• While the ECB avoided giving overt guidance of a hike in September, the undertones of Thursday’s decision and presser almost exclusively point to a quarter point hike in September as per consensus and market pricing;

• Almost nothing can stop the ECB from raising rates again, barring President Trump and Supreme Leader Khamenei hugging each other in central Tehran. Lagarde & Co have given up on trying to assess the twists and turns in the Iran war, focusing instead on budding price pressures;

• Separately, my reading of the tealeaves is that the ECB is highly likely to raise Minimum Reserve Requirements before the year turn. With the intention to stem operating losses.

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