• Meanwhile in markets, it is day three of the US-Iranian ceasefire extension and Brent crude has already broken below the $80 a barrel threshold. Equities have left the war squarely in the rearview mirror and while US Treasuries are up this morning they remain below the week’s highs;

• The highly anticipated, page-and-a-half long memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran finally hit the wires today. A closer look shows the 14-point framework largely mirrors Iran’s 10-point proposal from back in early April — it seems the US simply got tired of all that winning. There are some adjustment – the main one being that language around continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz has been watered down. More difficult questions surrounding uranium enrichment have also been pushed aside for future negotiations to tackle – though Iran has reiterated its pinky promise of not pursuing a nuclear weapon;

• On the economic side, the framework outlines significant concessions – including a commitment by the US to help facilitate a $300 billion rehabilitation fund for Iran alongside the US' Gulf allies. Beyond that, Washington would provide immediate waivers for oil export sanctions and outline a path towards unfreezing Iranian assets and eventually removing all sanctions;

• That said, this remains a preliminary framework rather than a final deal. The phrase “final agreement” appears 12 times across the 14 points – underlining how much remains dependent on the outcome of the upcoming 60-day negotiation window. President Trump has already admitted that the 60-day timeline could be extended;

• US Vice President JD Vance – accompanied by the diplomatic ‘heavyweights’ special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son in law Jared Kushner – is set to meet Iran’s parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi in Switzerland on Friday to formally sign the memorandum and kick off the next round of negotiations;

• Iran war hawk of the first hour Senator Lindsey Graham has praised the VP's team for securing the MOU, though calling it ‘praise’ is an overstatement. By tying Vance so closely to a deal Graham clearly isn’t the biggest fan of he appears to be placing the responsibility squarely on Vance’s shoulders – making him the scapegoat should it all break down;

• Shifting to some market commentary, Brent crude is trading at $78.87 at pixel time. US Treasury yields are down around 1bp across the curve ahead of tonight’s FOMC decision. The broad dollar remains steady, with USDJPY continuing to trade above the 160 handle. In equities, S&P 500 futures are up a quarter of a percent this morning while Stoxx 50 futures are holding just below yesterday’s close;

• Looking ahead, all eyes are on the highly anticipated debut of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at this evening's FOMC decision – a rate hold but the presser should provide excitement. Beyond the main event, ECB-speak and the release of US retail sales data for May will provide some entertainment during the session.

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