•Meanwhile in markets, happy days are here again. One equity market after the other has recovered from the war-induced losses. And, to be sure, our central bank overlords aren’t happy with that rally at all. Word at the IMF/World Bank spring meetings, where a cabal of central bankers and their fetishists have gathered, is that punters (especially of the equity variety kind) grossly underestimate the war’s impact on supply;

•We see warnings like the current disruptions are only the “tip of the iceberg” (OK, that was the Qatari Finance Minister, not some European central banker). In one or two months, all hell will break loose with shortages of key commodities, price spikes – you get the picture. In any case, I cannot put it more eloquently than the folks at Bloomberg: “Across public panels, private dinners and other meetings on the sidelines of this week’s events in Washington, the growing consensus is that the impact of the conflict on the global economy is likely to get significantly worse before it gets better — even if a lasting peace is negotiated soon.”

•So, a hated rally. And if you know a bit about market wisdom, you’ll realize that this rally has legs. For the simple fact that it’s hated by the ‘experts’, and that there’s certainly bad news to come (if you believe the central bankers). I am also reminded of Bob Farrell’s ten market rules. Specifically, the one about expert consensus, which is always wrong. So, there you have it. Enjoy the rally;

•Turning to some overnight news and market commentary, US Treasury yields are loitering near the lows of the week. Which means that bonds have only erased a third or even less (in the case of Bunds) of their war-induced declines. S&P 500 futures are flat following a record-high close at 7,022.95 last eve. Asian equities are showing solid gains, with the Nikkei (+2.5%) leading the pack. With the wires reporting that the Americans and Iranians will likely sit down again soon for another round of peace talks, oil futures prices have stayed lower. I clock Brent crude futures at $95 a barrel, which is near the ‘short war optimism’ lows;

•ECB-speakers – ahem, leakers – hit the wires with the obvious narrative that the April Governing Council meeting will likely be hold. I mean: duh. If you only gleamed a few times at ECB-speak and the Iran war developments, you’d already know for certain that it’s going to be a hold. Oh, and by the way, in their public remarks, ECB-speakers suggested a hold too. None other than the leading hawk, Board Member Schnabel, called for patience in a speech in Washington yesterday;

•Looking ahead, central bank fetishists can eat their hearts out with a full batch of ECB-speakers and a few Fed-speakers thrown in for good measure. We get obligatory US jobless claims. Finally, the Swiss National Bank is holding a money market event, which is attended by some great members of our team.

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