• Meanwhile in markets, bonds and equities are mostly holding on to yesterday’s gains as punters anxiously wait till a new round of US-Iran negotiations are announced;

• Ever the optimist, President Trump believes talks may even happen before the weekend, even though earlier reports pointed toward the weekend itself. While time is running short with the ceasefire set to expire in six days, I don’t think the shooting will start again. Overnight Trump said the conflict was very close to over – he clearly wants out of the electorally damaging war business;

• Where the President can take a win is with his blockade of Iranian ports. Reportedly, no vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz during the first 24 hours of the blockade. Rich Starry, the sanctioned vessel we highlighted yesterday, has reversed course after appearing to try to exit the Strait of Hormuz;

• In overnight news, European leaders are reportedly planning a post-war mission to free up shipping and remove mines in the Strait. Importantly, the plan doesn’t involve the US. The Europeans do have a tactical advantage over the US. Minesweeping is one of the few areas where European naval capacity significantly outsizes and outclasses that of the US;

• Shifting to some market commentary, Brent crude is holding at $95 a barrel this morning. While crude prices have dropped $25 from their peak, markets aren’t pricing a return to the $60 Brent we saw in January any time soon: Brent futures expiring in January 2027 are trading at $81 a barrel;

• High fuel prices are not just a thing we see at the pump, they are showing up in polls too. According to the Nate Silver polling average – an indicator watched by many beltway insiders – President Trump’s net approval rating sits at second term low of -17.2 percent. Keep in mind these numbers are lagging indicators, with polls taking place before the latest ceasefire developments and Trump’s religiously inspired AI slop pictures posting. Trumps current net approval rating still sits above the floor of both President Biden (-20.5) and Trump in his own first term (-20.8) – though the last month hasn’t been pretty with a five-point slide;

• The war in Iran is likely to have a lasting impact on American politics – at least if you put any faith in online betting markets. Polymarket now has Dems at 55 percent to win the Senate – a big swing from the GOP’s 60 percent lead in February – and the House looks locked in. Even the 2028 Presidential outlook is shifting, with the Democratic party lead widening to 22 points from 10 points before the war;

• Shifting to broader market commentary, S&P 500 futures are holding at yesterday’s close with Stoxx 50 futures down marginally. US Treasury yields are holding near yesterday’s lows. Notably, the dollar index has undone most of its gains since the start of the war with Iran – it only remains half a percent above its pre-war level;

•  Looking ahead, we have a barrage of Fed- and ECB-speakers this afternoon, but beside that there is little on the schedule.

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