•Meanwhile in markets, if you had hoped that Iran would no longer dictate markets, I have some bad news for you: it still does. The good news is that oil is lower while bonds and equities are higher on the prospect of a second round of peace talks soon;

•Bloomberg reported that the US and Iran are trying to hold another round of peace talks before the truce expires a week from now. With the US naval blockade of Iran having come into effect, the White House said that the ball is Tehran’s court. Language that suggests that the Americans really want to talk and no more shooting. Meanwhile, a sanctioned merchant ship, the Rich Starry, is trying for a second time to exit the Strait of Hormuz and thus testing the effectiveness of the naval blockade;

•In other Iran news, US media reported that the White House is quite happy with Iran’s Parliament speak Ghalibaf. As a matter of fact, according to the rumor mill the Administration would love to see Ghalibaf as the leader of Iran. Love is in the air and all that;

•Brent crude has dipped slightly below the key $100 level. And, lo and behold, US Treasury yields are down, by a bps of six or eight compared to Monday’s highs. The S&P 500 closed up yesterday and managed to climb slightly above its pre-war close on February 27. Asian equities are up this morning, with mostly modest gains except for the Nikkei, which is 2.4% in the green;

•The broad dollar is down this morning. And, as a matter of fact, the greenback has nearly given up all its war-induced gains. While most currencies are up notably versus the greenback as of late, the yen has benefited little from dollar weakness. As a matter of fact: yen weakness is the major theme these days, with the currency falling to an all-time low against the euro overnight. Yen weakness comes on the back of Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s dovish speech on Monday, when he talked down prospects of a rate hike this month. Furthermore, this morning Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi and Finance Minister Katayama reprimanded the Trade Minister Akazawa for his hawkish remarks on the BOJ (he suggested BOJ tightening to counter imported inflation via the weak currency);

•Elsewhere, for the April ECB about 10-11bps in hikes are priced in. A mistake IMO as I think the ECB will Hodor, rather take stock and then make a move in June, when we get the new economic forecasts ritual that our central bank overlords love so much;

•With the Iran war truce still holding, gold and Bitcoin have staged a recovery from the war lows. Both Gold (trading at $4,759) and Bitcoin (trading at $74,358) are encountering stiff resistance around their respective 50-DMAs. Especially Bitcoin is at a crucial juncture around current levels – the mid-March highs. If a breakout to the upside fails, the charts suggest we might test even lower levels;

•Looking ahead, besides the usual Iran headline-watching, eyes will be on US PPI figures for March following the hot CPI print for that month. There’s also a full batch of Fed-speakers. Who are pretty useless these days in the sense that the central bank is clearly on hold hold’. Hodor and all that.

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