• Meanwhile in markets, sentiment surrounding a US–Iran peace deal has eased slightly, though hopes for a (more) permanent accord remain palpable. While bonds have come off their highs, equities remain within touching distance;

•An IRGC-linked reporter argued that the Axios story describing the one-page memorandum was distant from reality on the reported nuclear concessions. The current negotiations are instead focused on securing a sustainable ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The nuclear file will only be addressed once those objectives are achieved;

• Iran is expected to provide an official response to the memorandum before of the weekend. While Tehran may push back on specific elements of the memorandum, I expect the broader peace process to continue moving forward;

• On the nuclear side, I find it highly unlikely that any final agreement would involve an enrichment moratorium shorter than the 10-year framework of the Obama-era nuclear deal that Trump despised. Iran is well aware of this and will seek to leverage it to extract greater sanctions relief and access to additional frozen assets;

• Shifting to some market commentary, Brent crude is trading a hair above the $100 dollar handle. US Treasury yields are holding near yesterday’s close – a couple of basis points above yesterday’s lows. In our neck of the woods, ECB dated ESTR’s now price in 61bps of hikes by year-end. For the June meeting pricing has sagged to 21bps where it previously fully priced in a hike;

• Moving to equities, the Nikkei is up nearly six percent – from its last trading day on May 1st – reaching an all-time high. Closer to home, the tech-heavy AEX closed at a record high yesterday. S&P 500 and Stoxx 50 futures are flat this session – within touching distance of yesterday’s highs. It is not just optimism around a potential peace deal driving markets higher – the ongoing AI boom/bubble is also providing strong support. Our own AI index, which includes hyperscalers such as Nvidia, has rallied roughly 45 percent from its March lows;

• Looking ahead, we have interest rate decisions from the Riksbank, Norges Bank and Czech National Bank – all expected to hold – alongside a full slate of ECB speakers throughout the day. Across the Atlantic, several Fed speakers are also scheduled, along with the obligatory weekly jobless claims. Of course, we will continue to closely watch headlines coming out of Iran, even if attention slowly turns toward tomorrow’s US labor market report.

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