• Meanwhile in markets, the Gulf’s cold war gotten a lot warmer – yet the fragile ceasefire still holds. Crude oil prices have pulled back from yesterday’s highs, with bonds and equities remaining near yesterday’s lows;

• Iranian drones, missiles, and fast-attack boats swarmed the Strait of Hormuz as the US deployed two warships into the Gulf to support Project Freedom – President Trump’s mission to escort commercial vessels. Though the US repelled most attacks, one drone struck an Emirati oil facility in Fujairah, reportedly sparking a major fire;

• Despite the escalation, President Trump stopped short of saying the four-week ceasefire had been broken when pressed on the issue. While the Iranians (continue) to cry out over US ceasefire violations, they too have stopped short of declaring the ceasefire dead;

• Brent crude is trading around $113 a barrel – clearly unsettled by the latest strikes, but far from a full-blown panic. At pixel time, it sits roughly $2 below yesterday’s highs. At €48/MWh, European natural gas prices have also climbed to their highest level in three weeks. That said, they remain about €25 below the war highs;

• Shifting to bonds, US Treasury yields are holding near yesterday’s close – easing slightly from yesterday’s peaks. The 30-year yield has now pushed above the 5.00 percent mark for the first time since July last year. In our neck of the woods, Bund futures are also holding near yesterday’s close;

• Moving to equities, Stoxx 50 futures are holding near yesterday’s close as S&P 500 futures have eked out marginal gains. Across the GCC, equity markets have not been moving in lockstep during the war. Indices in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait are all down year-to-date, though only the UAE has slipped into correction territory. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul is up five percent this year but still sits roughly five percent below its 2025 peak;

• Oman stands out as the clear outlier. Its exchange has surged 43 percent year-to-date to an all-time high – mirrored in the strong outperformance of its sovereign bonds;

• Turning to overnight news, the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered its third consecutive rate hike of 25bps;

• Looking ahead, the April US ISM Services PMI and March job openings report are on tap today. Beyond the data, attention also turns to Romania, where a vote of no confidence against the government is expected to succeed. There is also plenty of Fed- and ECB-speak to keep an eye on, along with headlines coming out of Iran.

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