AFS Markets Blog: Morning 04/08/2026

• Meanwhile in markets, bonds are losing ground this morning as crude oil prices edge higher. At the same time, equities remain in the green with major indices approaching their all-time highs;

• Brent crude is trading around $85 per barrel after rising modestly overnight. President Trump warned that the current negotiations represent Iran's "last chance" to secure a deal – though by now I've lost count of how many final chances there have been. While the US President insists talks are underway, they remain indirect for now with intermediary nations continuing to exchange messages between the two sides;

• We are keeping a close eye on the Iranian and Omani negotiations to restart traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to The New York Times, the arrangement currently proposed would grant Tehran leverage over the Strait it didn’t hold before the conflict. The report notes that while Iran won’t levy formal tolls, it plans to charge service fees for environmental impact and security – a matter of mere semantics. US officials, however, continue to dispute this will happen;

• Shifting to market commentary, US Treasury yields are up around 2bps across the curve this morning. Asian equities have largely reversed their earlier losses in this session – with the Hang Seng the only major index still trading in the red. S&P 500 futures are up around a quarter of a percent putting the cash index within roughly half a percent of its all-time high. In FX, USDJPY has edged higher this morning, trading at 157.74 at pixel time;

• During yesterday’s session a Truth Social post popped up on my screen where President Trump claimed his polling numbers are the best they’ve ever been – so let’s do a quick reality check on that. Trump’s net approval rating has hit a new second-term low with the closely watched Nate Silver Average standing at -20.6 percent. To put that into perspective, this level sits below President Biden’s absolute floor – after his infamous 2024 debate performance – and effectively ties with Trump’s first term lows;

• Polling had actually begun to improve after the Memorandum of Understanding brought a lull in fighting, but since mid-July Trump’s net approval has dropped a whopping 5 percentage points in just two weeks. Trump is facing the prospect of a lame-duck presidency should Republicans lose the midterm elections in three months' time. Against that backdrop, his decision to TACO and call off further attacks is hardly a surprise. Current polling suggests Republicans have little chance of retaining control of the House of Representatives after November's elections;

• The Senate race is more competitive with the bookmakers still favoring Republicans. Democrats would need to hold on to every one of their current seats while flipping four Republican-held seats – at least two in states where President Trump won by double digits in 2024. Even so, the Republican advantage is relatively slim with Polymarket currently assigning a 55 percent probability that the GOP retains its Senate majority;

• Looking ahead, attention will be on June US job openings at 16:00 CET as a first real taste of labor market data this week. Consensus puts the print at 7,504k – down slightly below May’s 7,594k figure. Despite the slight decline, the broader picture is one of labor market stabilization – with open positions sitting 1,000k clear of their December 2025 lows.

‍