• Meanwhile, in markets, the US is getting a little too tired of winning. President Trump keeps saying he’s nearly done with his ‘special military excursion’ – even if that means other countries will have to fix the broken Strait of Hormuz. Markets, which had been skeptical on Trump’s peace trial balloons for a while, are now rallying hard on his latest promises;

• President Trump is now envisioning an end to the war in maybe two, perhaps three weeks. According to the President, the US has achieved its one goal – out of the many named in the process – ensuring Iran will have no nuclear weapons. It almost feels like an April Fools’ joke. Regardless, our eyes are peeled on President Trump’s address to the nation this evening at 9PM ET with an update on Iran – the first such the month this war has been going on;

• The President is playing hardball with allies to clean up his mess in the Strait of Hormuz, and that pressure may be yielding results. According to the WSJ, the UAE is preparing to assist the US and other allies in reopening the Strait of Hormuz by force. Even as Washington talks about a swift end to the war, it continues to amass military equipment in the Middle East, with a third aircraft carrier now en route;

• Shifting to market commentary, Brent crude has fallen almost fifteen bucks to $103 a barrel as hopes of a quick end to the war have been rekindled. US Treasury yields are down 4bps across the curve with the 2y and 10y falling to a two-week low. Predictably, Bund futures are up too. Asian equities are rallying hard on the Iran war trade: the Nikkei is up nearly five percent, with the Hang Seng and CSI 300 rising two percent and one and a half percent, respectively. S&P 500 futures are up half a percent today, while Stoxx 50 futures up nearly two and a half percent;

• Just after European markets closed yesterday, US markets — particularly equities — already jumped sharply following comments from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Iran has the necessary will to end the conflict. But only if it receives firm guarantees that the war won’t be repeated. Markets reacted strongly even though similar lines have been floated by the Iranian President over the past weeks. Clearly, punters are latching on to any signal of potential peace;

• Looking ahead, we have plenty of data releases today, including US retail sales, the ISM manufacturing PMI and the Eurozone unemployment rate. Besides there are also a couple of Fed- and ECB-speakers, but all eyes will be on President Trump’s speech on the Iran war.

‍