• Meanwhile in markets, weaker than expected Eurozone inflation data combined with relatively dovish ECB commentary has sent Bund yields to within touching distance of their post-war lows. The 2-year Bund yield fell 2bps this morning – leaving it just a hair above the psychological 2.50 percent handle;

• Preliminary Eurozone member state inflation data for June has benefited from the détente in the Middle East and the resulting plunge in oil prices – as Brent crude continues to trade around the $72 handle. Two major releases are already in: France’s June year-on-year headline inflation surprised to the downside at 2.0 percent versus the expected 2.3 percent, while that of Italy came in marginally below consensus;

• Throughout the morning our feeds have also been filled with commentary from the ECB’s Sintra Forum, where speakers are hedging their bets on another ECB rate hike. National Bank of Belgium Governor Wunsch came out swinging, stating that the case for another hike has weakened as the recent US-Iran deal has essentially made the inflationary shock disappear. Bundesbank President Nagel kept pushing for a hike but also acknowledged that a July is out of the picture. Instead, the decision is being punted to September – when the ECB updates its staff forecasts;

• ECB-dated ESTR pricing now leaves roughly 3bps of hikes priced in for the upcoming July meeting. While September pricing is also down by around a basis point today, markets still lean towards a hike with roughly 17bps priced in. The peak of ESTR forward pricing now sits only slightly above 25bps of hikes around nine months out – with a third ECB hike almost fully out of the picture;

• Shifting to broader market commentary, US Treasury yields are down a basis point across the curve today. In equities, the Stoxx 50 is up over a percent this morning while S&P 500 futures are holding at yesterday's close. In FX, all eyes remain on the yen. USDJPY touched 162.40 three times throughout the morning, but each time the cross retreated by roughly 20 pips. That move does not signal Japanese ‘yentervention’ – rather it is likely markets testing the resolve of Japanese officials;

• Looking ahead, there is plenty more central bank speak scattered throughout the calendar today. On the data front, we have the release of German preliminary CPI in our neck of the woods, while across the Atlantic the focus is on detailed US job openings data for May.

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