• Meanwhile in markets, it’s been an eerily quiet week. Partly this reflects a thin calendar, but punters are also holding their breath ahead of today’s US–Iran talks in Geneva;

• Brent crude dropped a percent today and went below the $70 mark. The decline was initially attributed to rising Middle East oil supply, but with EURCHF rising from its lows there may have been leaks on the progress of the talks that we haven’t come across yet. The key question is whether both sides can move close enough to a deal to persuade President Trump to hold off on the limited strikes he was reportedly considering earlier this week;

• US Treasuries and Bunds continue to trade in a holding pattern with yields near their 2026 lows. The rather silent bond rally in 2026 has come alongside falling real yields. German 10-year real yields have dropped more than 20bps from its early-January highs to 0.75%. The real yields show little evidence of the German fiscal push which is supposed to drive Eurozone growth. In the US, 10-year real yields have also declined, though less sharply, down about 10bps to 1.65%;

• Equities are eking out gains in Europe, with the Stoxx 50 hitting an all-time high for the eighth time in 2026. The index is up nearly 7% year-to-date, leaving the S&P 500 trailing with only a percent and a half rise. S&P 500 futures are down slightly today and remain roughly a percent below their all-time high;

• In FX, the broad dollar is flat today. Its losses have been most pronounced against emerging market currencies in 2026. The dollar is down more than two and a half percent against EM currencies, hitting a multi-year low. Compare that to G-10 currencies against which the greenback has seen a modest decline of just over half a percent. The ECB’s broad euro basket has reversed much of its 2026 gains and is now hovering near its January lows;

• Moving to broader markets, gold is up slightly today, trading at $5,188 a troy ounce. Silver, which drew attention during January’s debasement trade, is at $87 a troy ounce after briefly peaking above $90 yesterday – still well below its $121 high;

• Looking ahead, today’s calendar is light, with only US weekly jobless claims scheduled. Tomorrow brings more data, including Eurozone member-state inflation figures and US PPI releases, rounding off the week. Beyond that, the session is likely to remain quiet unless President Trump decides to shake things up.

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