•Meanwhile in markets, President Trump’s latest TACO – the unilateral extension of the Iran truce has failed to lift spirits. No surprise as punters weren’t afraid of the war returning anyway;

•It pays off not to take Trump’s remarks literally but simply compare them with prior remarks on the subject. Believe it or not, but sometimes there is method to the madness. For example, two weeks ago, the mad king basically threatened to nuke Iran. But his next move was a Pakistani-brokered truce deal with Tehran. Yesterday he *only* threatened with bombing some infrastructure and stuff. Trump is moving down the escalation ladder, isn’t he?

•In a certain way, the war is continuing. Albeit at a different and lower level: economic warfare. As part of the naval blockade of Iran, the US is turning around ships left and right and sometimes boarding them or even shooting a hole in the hull. The Iranians have decided to join the fray – commerce raiding – they want leverage too. Earlier in the session, Iranian state media affiliated to the Revolutionary Guards reported that its navy had seized two ships and transferred them to the Iranian coast;

•On the peace talks front it has become awfully quiet. Neither the US nor Iran is inclined to send a delegation to Islamabad for a second round anytime soon. The usual caveats apply – Trump can change on a dime (and still declare victory);

•While the cease fire has no set end-date, US media report that the unofficial deadline is three to five days for the Iranians to return to the negotiating table. The US outlet (Axios again I’m afraid) quoted US officials as saying that a deal on Iran’s nuclear program/ambitions is still achievable. Since the Americans and Israelis haven’t been able to ‘kill off’ the program with bombings and assassinations and whatnot, I guess there’s not much left besides talks;

•Turning to some market commentary, punters remain aloof. Awfully so in the eyes of our overlords at the central banks and IMF and such. EU Energy Commissar Jorgensen said that the current crisis is worse than 1973 and 2022 combined. How’s that for your daily dose of doom and gloom? Markets almost couldn’t care less;

•US Treasury yields up marginally – a couple of bps or so across the curve. European equities are mostly lower, but losses are again marginal. Bund yields have barely budged and S&P 500 futures have rebounded from the lows. With no peace deal in sight, Brent crude future prices have grinded higher, though we’re still modestly below the $100 a barrel mark;

•In commodity space there’s some good news as urea futures prices (key ingredient for fertilizers) have come off the highs, albeit marginally;

•Looking ahead, we have a bit of central bank speak and that’s it. Besides the obvious Iran headline watching. Tomorrow will be a bit more exciting with the first PMI readings for April. They should give us an insight into how companies are dealing with the shock of war and its fallout. Not just with regards to prices, but also output.

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