• Meanwhile in markets, we all know how this story goes… Reuters, citing anonymous sources, reported that US–Iran negotiators could return to the table by the weekend. And as usual, any hint of peace was enough to send both bonds and equities into a rally.

• In our neck of the woods, Bund yields are down 3-6bps in a bull-steepening move. The 2-years Bund yield stands at 2.59% – still 10bps above last week’s initial ceasefire headline lows. Eurozone sovereign spreads do remain near last week’s lows, which was the tightest since mid-March across the periphery. Stateside, US Treasury yields have continued to inch lower throughout the morning and are down 2bps across the curve;

• Shifting to equities, S&P 500 futures are up a quarter of a percent today, with the Stoxx 50 up a full percent. Since the initial ceasefire announcement last week, the Stoxx 600 subsectors technology, construction & materials and banks have gained the most – all are up around eight percent. Notably, the strongest performing sectors during the war – oil & gas and basic resources – have not given up their war-induced gains. The basic resources subsector actually rallied over seven percent;

• Shifting to FX commentary, the broad dollar continues to edge lower today. The Swiss franc has strengthened notably this week, with USDCHF down over a cent from Monday’s highs, while EURCHF holds just above 0.92. A notable move, as the semblance of geopolitical calm following the ceasefire would typically weigh on safe-haven demand. However, the ceasefire also reduces the risk of Swiss National Bank FX intervention, threats of which have driven the franc lower over the past month. Now that the risk of escalation in Iran – and a resulting safe-haven surge – is lower, the likelihood of intervention is lower, paradoxically supporting gains in the franc;

• Brent crude continues to hold below $100 a barrel, with European natural gas holding near yesterday’s lows. I also want to highlight the Brent–Urals spread, which has narrowed to about $15 from roughly $22 before the war. That is the tightest level since November last year – shortly after the US imposed sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil. In the face of high energy prices, the US Treasury Department has now issued waivers to buy sanctioned crude. A boost for Putin’s war chest: not only have spreads compressed, but Brent is up almost $40 a barrel year-to-date;

• In the morning commentary we mentioned a sanctioned merchant vessel, the Rich Starry, attempting to exit the Strait of Hormuz. It reportedly succeeded, though a key caveat is that it was carrying cargo from a UAE port rather than an Iranian one;

• Looking ahead, we have plenty of Fed- and ECB-speakers scheduled for this afternoon, alongside US PPI data for March.

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