• Meanwhile in markets, we’re catching a whiff of TACO Trump. You know what that means: oil is down, equities are up and bond yields are lower;

• Axios reported that President Trump may delay the 02:00 CET deadline – by when he wants the Iranians to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – if there is clear progress toward a deal. Without an agreement, he has threatened strikes on all of Iran's power plants and bridges –Geneva Convention be d*mned. Markets, however, don’t seem to be pricing in that level of escalation. Brent crude has dipped trading just below $110 a barrel. However, the three-dollar intra-day decline is not an all in on the TACO trade either;

• In an interesting twist: WTI futures – the US crude benchmark – are trading at a rare premium to Brent – the global benchmark. Where WTI usually sits $4–$5 below Brent, it now sits $3 above of it. Demand for US crude has surged as refiners pivot from Middle Eastern supplies, pushing prices higher.

• Shifting to bond markets, US Treasury yields are down a basis point across the curve. Bund yields are marginally higher than Thursday’s close but are 2–3 bps below their intra-day highs. Periphery-Bund spreads have eased from their ‘special military excursion’ peaks, with Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, and French spreads narrowing by 5 bps or more;

• In broader market commentary, the Stoxx 50 is up by three-quarters of a percent today. While S&P 500 futures are barely in positive territory, they initially fell over half a percent this morning. In FX, the broad dollar is down marginally today – EURUSD is trading at 1.157;

• Looking ahead, February’s preliminary US durable goods orders are released today, along with some Fed-speak. Tomorrow is quieter, with the only thing of note being the release of the FOMC minutes of the March meeting.

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