AFS Markets Blog: Midday 13/07/2026
• Meanwhile in markets, as headlines out of Iran continue to come in throughout the morning it is clear that while the weekend has drawn to a close the military tit-for-tat between the US and Iran has not. Crude oil is marching higher this morning, leaving both equities and bonds to feel the pain;
• The back-and-forth strikes continued after indirect talks on Saturday failed to bring an agreement. President Trump claims there was a deal – but the option has been taken off the table following continued Iranian attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. US airstrikes on Sunday focused heavily on degrading Iranian defense infrastructure, specifically targeting the small boats used to harass commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz;
• Tehran is focused on striking American military installations in the Middle East. According to Reuters, Tehran’s campaign over the weekend has targeted sites across Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait – with the latter three enduring strikes throughout the morning;
• Conflicting narratives shroud the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran claims the crucial waterway is now closed, with the US claiming it remains open. Reuters reports that six vessels successfully transited the passage on Sunday – while short of a total shutdown that does mark a five-week low;
• Shifting to markets, Brent crude is trading in the $79 handle – considering its war-driven highs lie in the $120’s it still remains relatively contained. US Treasury yields have ticked up 2–3 basis points across the curve this session. Asian equities have been dragged into the red this morning, with the Nikkei dropping by 2 percent. S&P 500 futures are down half a percent. In FX, the broad dollar has gained just under a quarter of a percent in morning;
• Looking ahead, the focus will largely be on watching headlines coming out of Iran today. We will have plenty of time for that as the rest of the schedule consists of a couple of Fed and ECB-speakers.
