AFS Markets Blog: Midday 04/08/2026

• Meanwhile in markets, if you're looking for headlines, equities are where the action is today. Major currency crosses are largely moving sideways, while bond yields continue to take their cue from movements in crude oil prices;

• Across Europe, equities are by and large trading at or just below all-time highs. Major benchmarks – including the Stoxx 50, Stoxx 600, DAX, AEX, FTSE MIB and IBEX 35 – are among those touching record peaks today. That picture extends to the US as well, where the S&P 500 sits within touching distance of its own all-time high;

• The story in Asia is completely different. Key beneficiaries of the AI trade such as the Nikkei and Kospi have retreated roughly 10 percent and 30 percent, respectively, from their highs. Both onshore and offshore Chinese equity markets remain well below both their year-to-date and all-time highs;

• European equity indices may be hovering near record territory, but beneath the surface there are significant differences in the performance of different sectors in 2026. Leading the pack are the sectors that have benefited from higher commodity prices following the war in Iran. The Stoxx 600 Oil & Gas and Basic Resources subindices are up roughly 30 percent and 20 percent year-to-date respectively. They are not the only sectors lifting the market, however. Technology, Banks, Industrial Goods & Services and Aerospace & Defense have all posted healthy gains of well over 10 percent so far this year;

• At the other end of the spectrum, the Automobiles & Parts subindex stands out as the worst performer in 2026. The subindex has shed around 15 percent of its value year-to-date as intensifying Chinese competition continues to weigh heavily on Europe's carmakers. The Personal Goods and Media subindexes are also down more than 5 percent year-to-date. The Travel & Leisure subindex rounds out the list of sectors we track closely and is also in the red;

• Shifting to the broader market picture, Brent crude prices have inched up to $86 a barrel throughout the morning – with Bund and UST yields crawling higher alongside. Bund yields across the curve are up 1bp compared with yesterday’s close, while UST yields have gained around 3bps. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and that old relic gold have both been moving sideways over the past month. Both remain firmly in the red year-to-date: gold is sitting on a 6 percent loss, while Bitcoin is trading nearly 30 percent below where it started the year;

• Looking ahead to this afternoon, the focus will be on the detailed US job openings report for June. Tomorrow brings a calendar packed with data releases, headlined by the US ISM Services PMI release.

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