• The SNB remains set to hold its policy rate steady over the coming twelve months. While the war in Iran is lifting headline inflation, it remains at the bottom end of the SNB's target range;

• Second-round effects from the energy price shock are set to fuel core inflation towards the end of 2026. However, the SNB has historically favoured to hold off on hikes in response to commodity price spikes;

• Recent signs of economic momentum are misleading – underlying growth remains subdued. Given that inflation remains contained the SNB will be in no rush to tighten their rates.

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