Please find attached my latest SNB outlook report. To summarize:

• Geopolitical turmoil in 2026 has triggered a demand surge for the Swiss franc, threatening to push already weak inflation into negative territory. Even with a historically strong franc, the Swiss National Bank is well positioned to hold interest rates steady and weather the storm.‍
• Despite already weak inflation, the decline is bottoming out. Momentum has returned to the Swiss economy, signalling to the SNB that it does not need to take rates deeper into negative territory. Instead the SNB stands ready to meet further surges in the franc with FX intervention.‍
• The energy price surge following the war in Iran have brought inflation concerns back to the table – prematurely in our view. We maintain our view that interest rates will remain steady, not just on March 19th but throughout all of 2026.