ECB March 2026 ECB Preview: this is not 2022 (phew)
Author
Arne Petimezas
Publication Date
March 17, 2026
The ECB will likely hold rates on Thursday while tilting hawkish. Inflation risks are now tilted to the upside, but the ECB will not flag a rate hike for either the April or June meetings. It’s too soon for the ECB to foreclose on an early end to the war and a gradual normalization of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz;
The current energy spike resembles that of 2022, but the economy is vastly different: rather cool instead of hot when it comes to pricing power of firms and workers. The labor market is weakening and a sore spot, a far cry from the hire-anything that moves attitudes of firms four or five years ago;
•The ECB still has the option to look through the war-induced price increases and hope that the increase in core inflation is only a bump in the road. Transitory. I have penciled in now hikes for this year, assuming that the war ends in weeks or months, and that the ECB doesn’t repeat the 2008 and 2011 hikes.
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