•The ECB will hold rates will guiding for a hike in June during the press conference with Lagarde. The cautious approach to tightening will stay, which is the reason why we have seen increased pressure on the long end.

•Stagflation is the name of the game for the Eurozone economy. Business and household surveys point to strong increases in expected inflation. We're still ways below peak 2022 inflation expectations. Furthermore, that same survey data points to an economy that is now at stall speed. To make matters worse, financial conditions - bank lending - are already tightening without the ECB having realized a single hike.

•I expect a second hike in September. But unlike market pricing, I expect a cut nine months after the last hike (in September). I am leaning towards a 2008/2011 scenario, when the ECB also hiked while the economy was weak and when there was an externally driven inflation shock.

•Since everything revolves around the Strait of Hormuz - at least in the short term - these forecasts can become stale after a single headline.

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