• Meanwhile in markets, as our own NATO Secretary General Rutte famously said “daddy has to sometimes use strong language” to stop a fight. President Trump has silenced the guns in the Middle East just as the conflict threatened to spiral out of control, sending Brent crude on a round-trip back toward Friday’s lows;

• Beyond the public calls on Truth social for the shooting to stop, President Trump reportedly threatened Prime Minister Netanyahu that Israel could quickly face Iran by itself if it didn’t stop its attacks. Trump shared that both sides would refrain from further strikes for at least a week, creating an opportunity to secure the broader extension of the ceasefire we have been writing about for months. President Trump continues to hint that a deal could be finalized before Thursday's World Cup kickoff, stating that negotiations are now in the final throes;

• Brent crude trades at $93 a barrel – slightly below where it closed at the end of last week. US Treasury yields have eased from yesterday’s highs – down another basis point across the curve this session – but still sit slightly above Friday’s close. In equities, the AI trade has found its footing again. South Korea’s Kospi index is up a whopping eight percent today – narrowly escaping correction territory. S&P 500 futures are up a quarter of a percent this morning – sitting two and a half percent below their all-time highs;

• Shifting to some FX commentary, the broad dollar has given up some of its weekly gains this session. Nevertheless, the greenback remains within sight of it’s war highs against major currencies – up nearly two and a half percent since the outbreak of the war with Iran. When compared to emerging markets the dollar’s gains are more contained – nearly one and a half percent – remaining a fair bit below its March highs. In our neck of the woods the ECB’s broad euro basket continues to trade below all its major moving averages. The euro is down a percent since the outbreak of war, remaining near its war lows;

• Looking ahead, it is set to be a quiet day with little on the schedule besides a lone ECB-speaker. As always, we will keep a close eye on Iran headlines.

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